Opened a QQQ long call condor (Nov 20 '26, 715/725/810/820), pairing a near-ATM bull call credit spread (715/725) with a deep-OTM bear call credit spread (810/820) to express rangebound sideways drift over Q3 earnings season. Opened July 23, 2026, 12:03 PM ET at $3.55 debit ($355 total; 1 long call condor). Defined-risk range play; max profit $645 in the $725–$810 zone, max loss $355 (= debit). Lower breakeven $728.55, upper breakeven $806.45.
Why This Structure
The long call condor expresses the most precise neutral view available on QQQ: two defined-risk verticals, one near-ATM bull call credit spread (715/725) and one deep-OTM bear call credit spread (810/820), fused into a single 4-leg structure.
Why this instead of a single vertical? A bull call spread at 715/725 would cost $4.585 debit for a max profit of $5.415 — a 1:1.18 risk:reward capped at $725. The condor adds the upper body (sell 810C / buy 820C) for a net credit that drops the debit to $3.55 while widening the profit zone from $10 to $85 wide. The trade-off: accepting the possibility of a blowout move above $820 or below $715 in exchange for a larger, more likely profit zone.
Why a condor instead of a short iron condor (short strangle)? The short strangle collects more premium but exposes the trade to unlimited risk on a gap — and QQQ's earnings-season gap risk is real. The long condor pays $355 to define the risk and still captures a 1:1.82 reward:risk on the same view.
Why these specific strikes? The 715/725 lower body sits just above spot ($692.18) — the lower short strike is 4.7% OTM, capturing the premium of a likely-OTM call over Q3 earnings. The 810/820 upper body sits 17.0% above spot — far enough OTM that the short body captures genuine time premium. The 85-point gap between the bodies is the profit zone the trade harvests.
Thesis
- Rangebound drift through Q3 earnings: QQQ has consolidated after the June run. Spot $692.18 sits well below the 715 lower wing and well above any near-term support. The structure profits if QQQ drifts sideways or grinds higher without a breakout — the highest-probability path through earnings season.
- Selling the IV skew: IV-by-strike falls from 26.2% at the 715C to 22.0% at the 820C — a steep skew that prices near-term uncertainty richly. The condor sells the body's rich premium (short 725C at 25.7% IV, short 810C at 22.2% IV) while buying cheaper wing protection.
- Defined risk on an index with gap risk: QQQ gaps on mega-cap earnings. A short premium structure would face unlimited tail risk; the long condor caps the loss at $355 while keeping a $645 max profit.
- Companion context: This is the first of a condor pair on QQQ — the narrow-body structure opened at 12:03 PM ET, with a wider-body variant (Dec 18 '26, 700/715/845/860) opened earlier the same day. The two express the same range view at different durations and widths.
Risk
| Risk | Magnitude | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ closes below $715 at expiry | Full $355 loss | Stop at $685 close; the long 715C loses intrinsic |
| QQQ closes between $715–$728.55 | Partial loss, scale $0–$355 | Hold; the 715C still has time value only if ITM |
| QQQ closes between $728.55–$725 | Partial profit, scale $0–$645 | Hold for max profit at expiry |
| QQQ closes between $725–$810 | $645 max profit (capped by 10-pt wings) | Take 50% at $322 close once profit crosses 50% |
| QQQ closes between $806.45–$810 | Partial profit, scale $0–$645 | Hold; the upper body still has time premium |
| QQQ closes above $820 at expiry | Full $355 loss (capped by long 820C wing) | Stop at $825 close |
| Earnings gap risk | QQQ gaps ±5% on mega-cap earnings; a gap above $820 or below $715 realizes the max loss | Defined risk caps the damage at $355 regardless of gap size |
Position Payoff at Three Time Horizons
The chart shows the P/L curve at three time horizons. The condor's value decays toward the expiry payoff as time passes: the profit zone sharpens and the wings' time premium bleeds out. At expiry the trade pays $645 anywhere between $725 and $810, loses the full $355 below $715 or above $820, and scales linearly between the wings and the bodies.
Key levels on the chart:
- Spot $692.18 — current underlying price, below the lower wing.
- Lower long strike $715.00 — the floor; below this the structure is worthless at expiry.
- Lower short strike $725.00 — lower profit boundary.
- Upper short strike $810.00 — upper profit boundary.
- Upper long strike $820.00 — the ceiling; above this the structure caps at the net debit loss.
- Lower breakeven $728.55 — lower long strike + net debit.
- Upper breakeven $806.45 — upper long strike − net debit.
- Max profit $645 — between $725 and $810 at expiry, limited by the 10-point wings (not the 85-point body gap).
- Max loss $355 — below $715 or above $820 at expiry.
Trade Details
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | QQQ options (Nov 20 2026 standard monthly) |
| Underlying | QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Nasdaq-100 ETF) |
| Structure | Long Call Condor — 4 legs |
| Strikes | Long 715C / Short 725C / Short 810C / Long 820C |
| Leg 1 | BTO +1× QQQ 715C Nov 20, 2026 at $32.15 (IV 26.2%) |
| Leg 2 | STO −1× QQQ 725C Nov 20, 2026 at $27.565 (IV 25.7%) |
| Leg 3 | STO −1× QQQ 810C Nov 20, 2026 at $5.04 (IV 22.2%) |
| Leg 4 | BTO +1× QQQ 820C Nov 20, 2026 at $4.005 (IV 22.0%) |
| Width | $10.00 lower body + $10.00 upper body (85-pt body gap) |
| Expiration | 2026-11-20 (120 DTE at entry) |
| Settlement | AM-settled (standard monthly; last trade day Thursday 11/19) |
| Net debit at fill | $3.55/share = $355/contract (OptionStrat basis) |
| Contracts | 1 long call condor |
| Total debit | $355 (1 × $355) |
| Max profit | $645 at expiration (lower width $10 − net debit $3.55 = $6.45/share × 100) |
| Max loss | $355 (= net debit, defined risk) |
| Lower breakeven | $728.55 (stated in the source's recorded-basis stats) |
| Upper breakeven | $806.45 (stated in the source's recorded-basis stats) |
| Reward:risk | 1:1.82 ($355 risk to $645 reward) |
| IV at entry | IV-by-strike 26.2/25.7/22.2/22.0% |
| Entry time | Jul 23 2026, 12:03 PM ET |
| Management rule | 50% of max profit ($322 to close) OR close at 30 DTE |
| Stop loss | 2× debit ($710/contract cost to close) OR QQQ closes below $685 or above $825 |
Greeks Snapshot (Black-Scholes)
| Greek | Per-contract value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Delta (Δ) | +0.00 est. | Near-zero net delta at entry; the 4 legs roughly cancel — a delta-neutral structure. |
| Gamma (Γ) | Mild short | Body short gamma dominates wing long gamma; the position loses on large moves either way. |
| Theta (Θ) | Net positive | Long-dated body shorts decay faster than the wing longs; time works for the trade. |
| Vega (ν) | Mild long | Wings are far enough OTM that an IV expansion benefits the structure. |
Numbers per-contract = per-share × 100.
Verification (anti-pattern #80: basis vs live)
OptionStrat's model bases can be stale relative to the live chain. Live verification against the chain showed the OptionStrat bases ran roughly 9%–17% below the live mids on this trade — a meaningful discrepancy, so the live-mid economics are stated explicitly:
| Metric | OptionStrat basis | Live-mid estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Net debit | $3.55/share | ~$4.40/share (~$440/contract) |
| Max profit | $645 | ~$560 |
| Max loss | $355 | ~$440 |
| Lower breakeven | $728.55 | ~$729.40 |
| Upper breakeven | $806.45 (stated) | $806.45 (stated) |
The source records the OptionStrat-basis hero numbers ($645 / $355) until an actual-fill update is published. If the fill comes near the live mid (~$4.40), the trade's real economics are ~$560 max profit / ~$440 max loss, and the stop-loss math moves with them (2× debit = $880 at live mid).
How the Trade Has Moved Against the Underlying
The source includes a companion spot-vs-strategy-premium simulation chart (not migrated; only the P/L curve was in scope). Its key reading: the condor's premium tracks QQQ's drift — the structure gains value as spot grinds toward the $725–$810 profit zone and loses value on sharp moves in either direction. The simulation confirms the short-gamma profile: chop is the friend, velocity is the enemy.
Intraday Setup (entry)
- Pre-market context: QQQ consolidating after the June run; spot $692.18 at entry. The Nov 20 '26 chain showed the standard IV skew — higher IV near the money, falling off with distance.
- Entry signal: Spot below the lower wing ($715) with the lower short strike ($725) 4.7% OTM. The structure nets to near-zero delta, expressing a range view through Q3 earnings season.
- Execution: Opened July 23, 2026, 12:03 PM ET at $3.55 debit (OptionStrat basis). No actual-fill update published at the time of the source; the live-mid cross-check estimated ~$4.40 debit. If the bid is significantly tighter than the mid at fill time, prefer the tighter quote — the anti-pattern #80 discrepancy makes the actual fill the number that matters.
- Position size check: $355 max loss (OptionStrat basis) = 0.118% of $300k book; $440 at live-mid economics = 0.147% of book. Both below the per-trade cap.
Management Plan
- Open through Q3 2026: Hold through earnings season. The condor has net positive theta and an 85-point profit zone. Take 50% of max profit ($322/contract at OptionStrat basis) if the trade crosses the halfway mark.
- 30-DTE hard close: Never let a 4-leg condor go inside 30 DTE with accelerating theta on the wings. Close or roll by late October regardless of P&L.
- Stop loss: 2× debit ($710/contract cost to close at OptionStrat basis; $880 at live-mid economics) OR QQQ closes below $685 or above $825.
Position Update Log
| Date | QQQ Price | Position Value | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 (entry) | $692.18 | $355.00 | — | Opened. 1 long call condor @ $3.55 debit (OptionStrat basis). No actual-fill update published. |
Outcome
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Realized P&L | Open trade — to be filled at expiration or earlier management action |
| Holding time | 120 DTE target (Jul 23 2026 → Nov 20 2026) |
| Hit target? | Open — take 50% if profit ≥ $322/contract (OptionStrat basis). |
Lessons
(To be filled in as the trade progresses through Q3 2026.)
Cross-references
- The strategy page for this structure (referenced in the source as a strategy entry) covers the long call condor mechanics in the abstract.
- The playbook (2026-07-05 SOP) governs position sizing, the 30-DTE hard close rule, and the 50%-of-max-profit take-profit rule used here.
Disclosure
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