Tue Nov 10 — Futures split ahead of October CPI at 8:30 AM ET — S&P flat, Nasdaq lower, Dow higher — after Waller floated a half-point December hike if core prints 0.3% or hotter. [Updated 8:45 AM ET with October CPI]

Tue Nov 10 — Hot October CPI (core +0.3% for a third straight month) puts a half-point December hike on the table; S&P slips 0.4% to 7,520.93 as the 10-year tops 5% and Nvidia drops another 5.5%.

Mon Nov 9 — Futures firm after the S&P's worst week since April, but Nvidia falls about 5% premarket as its board opens a probe into CEO Jensen Huang; October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.

Mon Nov 9 — S&P jumps 2.4% in its best day since April as oil slides and chips rebound without Nvidia, which falls 4.3% on the CEO probe; October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.

Fri Nov 6 — The Nasdaq enters correction after Thursday's 5.5% rout, the worst day since April 2025; futures split as chips bounce into the 8:30 AM jobs report (consensus +65K), with CPI Tuesday and the December 9 Fed decision next. [Updated 8:40 AM ET with the October jobs report]

Fri Nov 6 — chips lead a partial rebound after Thursday's rout as the S&P gains 0.6% and the SOX jumps 6.4%, but a hot jobs report (+165K) lifts December hike odds toward 80% and caps the bounce; the S&P ends the week down 2.4% with CPI Tuesday the next hinge.

Thu Nov 5 — The post-midterm rally cools into a rotation: Dow futures hold +0.7% while Nasdaq futures slide ~0.6% as chips sell their prints; gold pushes past $4,120 and oil steadies after Wednesday's 8% crash, with jobless claims and productivity at 8:30 ahead of Friday's payrolls. [Updated 8:45 AM ET with claims and productivity]

Thu Nov 5 — the AI trade unwinds violently: the S&P falls 4.3% in its worst day since April 2025 as the semiconductor index plunges 12.3% and the Nasdaq enters correction; the VIX surges 70% to 28.18 while bonds rally and crude rebounds, with Friday's payrolls the next hinge.

Wed Nov 4 — Democrats' sweep of Congress sets up divided government as overnight futures whipsaw into a 1%-plus rally; SPX futures ~7,680 and the VIX back near 18 into ADP, the Treasury refunding, and ISM services. [Updated 8:45 AM ET with ADP and trade]

Wed Nov 4 — the midterm sweep brings a +1.6% S&P relief rally with the Dow up 3.0%; crude crashes ~8% on Iran-war-end pricing while gold gains ~3.7%, ISM services cools to 54.5 with prices still hot, and semiconductors are sold into the rally.

Tue Nov 3 — Election Day; S&P futures flat near 7,567 after Monday's −0.51% tech-led fade; Apple −4% premarket on December-margin guidance and Shopify −16% on a GMV miss as September JOLTS looms at 10:00 AM ET; WTI rebounds ~1.3% to $97.3 after US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Tue Nov 3 — Tech leads the Election Day rebound as semis bounce into AMD's and Super Micro's after-close beats; S&P 500 +0.4% and Nasdaq +0.8% while the Dow slips 0.4% on Apple; hot September JOLTS (7.52M vs 7.15M expected) keeps December hike odds near 76%.