Mon Sep 14 — the AI-caution trade hammers chips (Nasdaq futures −1.8%), crude surges past $107 on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, and Wednesday's FOMC is ~90%-priced for a 25bp hike.

Mon Sep 14 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,618.70 as the AI-safety debate hit chips and the 10-year touched 5%; VIX +8.5% to 17.18, WTI settled at $101.39, FOMC decision Wednesday.

Fri Sep 11 — CPI day: August CPI at 8:30 AM ET (consensus +0.3% MoM core) is the verdict for September positioning into Wednesday's FOMC.

S&P 500 closes Friday at 7,656 (+0.86%), snapping a four-day losing streak, as August CPI prints +0.4% MoM with core +0.3%; VIX -11.2% to 15.84.

Thu Sep 10 opens modestly higher pre-CPI positioning; Initial Claims at 8:30 AM ET; oil extends past $95 (CL $97.53); Friday's CPI is the verdict.

S&P 500 closes Thursday at 7,591.70 (-0.58%), a fourth straight loss, as WTI tops $100 and the 10Y jumps to 4.95%; VIX closes at 17.84.

Wed Sep 9 opens in pre-CPI hawkish positioning mode with oil holding past $95; Thursday's Claims and Friday's CPI are the next inputs.

Pre-CPI hawkish positioning day — SPX -0.48% to 7,636.36; VIX expands +4.71% to 16.46; oil past $95 area (XLE +0.83%, USO +2.70%); 10Y +3.1 bp to 4.837%. Friday's CPI is the September release.

Tue Sep 8 reopens post-Labor Day with oil past $95 and the hawkish-Warsh compound extending; Friday's CPI is the week's verdict.

S&P 500 closes Tuesday at 7,673.52 (-0.58%) as the post-ceasefire oil premium extends past $95; VIX +8.2% to 15.72.

Pre-NFP positioning flat ahead of today's 8:30 AM ET August NFP (consensus +75K, prior +114K); markets closed Mon Sep 7 for Labor Day (reopen Tue Sep 8).

S&P 500 closes Friday at 7,718.60 (-0.38%) as a hot August NFP (+162K) re-prices September hike odds toward 60%; WTI ends the week at $91.48 (+9.7% WTD).

Pre-NFP calm with equities flat; oil extends past $91 (+0.73% overnight); gold bounces +2.48% to $4,474. Initial Claims + JOLTS today, NFP Friday.

S&P 500 closes Thursday at 7,747.71 (+1.06% on the day; +0.47% WTD) as Initial Claims + JOLTS absorbed as in-line-and-softer against a no-cut-consensus backdrop.