Daily Briefs

The day, morning to close.

Each trading day, paired: the morning brief on the left — what mattered before the open — and the afternoon note on the right — what actually happened by the close. Newest days first.

Tuesday, August 04, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Tuesday, August 4, 2026: VIX Slides to 15.70, Mega-Cap Earnings in Rearview, QQQ Correction Holds

SPX 7489, SPY $747. VIX 15.70 (term ratio 0.764). SPY flat 20d, QQQ correction -3.45%. Breadth held at 50% through Monday's quiet session. Mega-cap earnings absorbed. New week, clean calendar.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — August 4, 2026

As of Tuesday, August 4, 2026 (4:00 PM ET close), the S&P 500 closed at 7,736.52 (per public.com realtime index print), up +1.79% on the session…

Monday, August 03, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Monday, August 3, 2026: SPX Digestion, Bull Trend Holds, QQQ Correction Under Pressure

SPX 7489, SPY $747, VIX 15.99 (term ratio 0.841). SPY flat 20d, QQQ correction -4.82%. Breadth held at 50% through a hawkish FOMC and near-consensus NFP. Mega-cap earnings clean sweep. Market digesting.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — August 3, 2026

As of Monday, August 3, 2026 (4:00 PM ET close), the S&P 500 closed at 7,600.50 (per public.com realtime index print; XSP $760.05 × 10 cross-check = $7,600.50), up +1.48% on the session versus Friday's 7,489.72…

Sunday, August 02, 2026

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — August 2, 2026

As of Sunday, August 2, 2026, the S&P 500 sits at 7,489.72 — Friday's close — after a five-session week that delivered a +1.03% Monday-to-Friday gain and a +1.05% week-over-week gain from the prior Friday's 7,411.98…

Friday, July 31, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Friday, July 31, 2026: Mega-Cap Earnings Queue, NFP Friday Setup, Defensive Rotation Holds

SPY $741.69, VIX 16.79 (term ratio 0.820, backwardated). Breadth recovered from the post-FOMC low of 25% back to 50%. The dual binary: MSFT/AMZN/META pre-market, NFP Friday 8:30 AM ET.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — July 31, 2026

As of Friday, July 31, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 — up +0.70% on AMZN/PCE all-clear…

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Thursday, July 30, 2026: Post-FOMC Selloff, Breadth Collapses to 25%, NFP Friday Setup

The hawkish-lean FOMC is being digested: rate held, 2026 median dots shifted up. SPY/QQQ/IWM sold off 1.5–2.0%, VIX up 1.28 points to 19.51, and breadth halved from 50% to 25% in a single session.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — July 30, 2026

As of Thursday, July 30, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63 — up +1.66% on MSFT's record surge…

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Wednesday, July 29, 2026: FOMC Decision Day, Tech Selloff Extends, Mega-Cap Earnings Queue

FOMC Day 2 is here: rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, presser at 2:30 PM ET. VIX 18.23 (term ratio 0.888, backwardated) as the tech selloff extends into the dot-plot binary.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — July 29, 2026

As of Wednesday, July 29, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15 — down -1.52% on hawkish FOMC hold…

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Morning

Market Outlook — Tuesday, July 28, 2026: Pre-FOMC Crosscurrents, Mega-Cap Earnings Queue

SPY $739.09, QQQ $682.12, IWM $292.91 with VIX 18.96 (term ratio 0.923, backwardated). Nasdaq -1.16% midday as semis slide before FOMC Day 2 and mega-cap tech earnings.

Afternoon

S&P 500 Forecast — July 28, 2026

As of Tuesday, July 28, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,428.78 — up +0.21% on pre-FOMC rotation…